Hopium & Copium: Before The Convention

2024 is going to be the most fascinating election of my lifetime and my political science nerd brain has been running at *Red Alert* for the past couple of weeks now trying to sort all of my initial thoughts and reactions into something coherent and readable and this is my first crack at unpacking it all. 

(If you have been living on another planet and/or under some kind of rock: President Joe Biden shortly after the end of the Republican National Convention, announced he was dropping out of the Presidential race and threw his support to Vice President Kamala Harris.)

Hopium & Copium: Before The Convention Edition

If you, like me, are a voter who's getting tired of feeling like you're trapped in some kind of insane asylum, voting for Kamala Harris is a no-brainer. If she can do a 100-day sprint of an election cycle and manage to win-- and do so convincingly-- it's a hammer blow to the primary system. This is something that has not gotten enough play in my opinion, The primary system rewards partisanship-- you have to appeal to the diehard hardcore elements of your base because those are the people who show up to all the meetings. It goes without saying that the core elements of the base of both parties are not where the median voter in this country is. If the Vice President can pull this off, instantly the question (should, but probably won't) becomes: why do we need to start our primaries in January and start campaigning for President 365 days before anyone actually votes for President? Should we have closed primaries at all? It's probably a quixotic hope to expect any serious attempts at reforming the primary system because it benefits both parties, but I'm hoping that we can at least have a discussion on its shortcomings.

Plus, you also see the advantage of running for President (the whole country) versus running for the Democratic nomination for President (the hardcore base of your own party.) The Vice President is already positioning herself quite differently from when she was a Senator or even running for President because she's trying to be President-- not just the Democratic nominee. In the '90s, people talked a lot about triangulation-- you go left or right to get the nomination, then tack back to the center to win the general but at some point in the last two or three cycles that's completely broken down. Now, the Vice President can close the enthusiasm gap within her own party (check), and nominate a Vice President (I'm thinking Walz, Kelly, or Beshear. Maybe Shapiro, but I don't think she's going to want to piss off the Teachers Unions and perhaps Cooper- but if she's picking today, I think it'll be one of those first three.) who will give her a convention bounce and shore up the ticket (good possibilities on many short lists I've seen), and then present a compelling policy vision to the whole country and see what happens.

I will also be honest: I was a bit queasy and annoyed with the DNC for not anticipating these concerns over Biden's age and having an actual primary and you can probably make the argument to me that it's kind of sketch that she didn't get a single vote in any kind of primary, but my counterargument to that would be simple: she's putting her candidacy forward to the American people-- whether it's a primary content or a general election, the voters are going to have the final say on this one way or the other.

Now, the question becomes: who is the real Kamala Harris? This is where I think the Right has been flailing the past few weeks. The 'DEI Hire' attack doesn't work, because it's the Right's equivalent of the Resistance Libs screaming nonstop about Russia: they've been yelling about DEI for so long and so loudly that people just tune that shit out at this point. The 'She's SUPER LIBERAL' doesn't really hold that much water either-- what state elected her as a Senator? Oh, that's right, the famous conservative and reactionary state of California. Is she SUPER LIBERAL or was she reflecting the views of her constituents? (Plus, that's another tiresome attack line of the Right. She's a Democrat. Did you really expect her to be Barry Goldwater?) 'She's complicit in the cover-up of Biden's health!; is another moronic attack line-- you don't even have to do a deep dive into American history to learn that Presidents and Vice Presidents may act like good friends in public, but in private the relationship can be quite different. It's entirely credible that she was unaware of the full extent of Biden's health problems- and that's assuming he has any beyond the usual gamut of age-related conditions that come from being 81 years old. (It's also fascinating to me that the thing that was her biggest liability in 2020 "She's a cop!" is now potentially an asset: "She's a cop!")

It's not all bad news for the Right: the internet/social media/mainstream media have been huffing incredible amounts of hopium these past few weeks and none of it might matter in the end. If the current consensus holds and our swing states are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona then all Trump & Vance have to do is flip Virginia, and suddenly the Democrats are in a very tight spot when it comes to the electoral math*-- (If that consensus holds.) If gas prices spike again and if inflation doesn't continue to ease where it counts (at the grocery store) the fundamentals of the election are very much still to your advantage. I see a very credible path for Trump just hammering the economy and inflation everywhere he goes and that might work. There are a few pollsters/political types out there urging caution and they may be absolutely correct when the dust settles on election day. This thing is not in the bag for the Democrats by any stretch of the imagination and it wouldn't take much to shift the polls the wrong way, especially when they appear so close.

I do think immigration would be a more sensible attack line for Republicans and could pay dividends by rallying their base and potentially being a defining issue for the election. (If it's about abortion/reproductive rights, advantage Democrats. If it's about immigration, advantage Republicans.) But the problem is that Republicans walked away from a deal on Border Security because Trump told them too. I get that from a Republican point of view they had a lot of issues with it, but if you can't explain to voters why it was bad in two sentences or less, 'they walked away from a border security deal because Trump told them too' is going to be what lands with voters. (Additionally: the Mainstream Media gaslighting on whether or not the Vice President was the 'Border Czar' is equally as ridiculous. She was and even though I haven't checked the veracity of this Tweet Thread by Senator Chris Murphy, pretending that she wasn't is ridiculous.)

(If you are a quietly non-Trump Republican or a conservative disquieted by the fact that a lot of what the Republican Party is doing these days doesn't feel very capital-C Conservative to you, fear not: you're probably going to take back the Senate and might keep the House to boot, so even if Trump loses you've got a brake check on any of your perceived 'worst excesses' of a Harris Administration. I would also be fucking pissed off, because I know Nikki Haley isn't everyone's cup of tea on the Right, but she would absolutely be up ten points right now and y'all would be looking at a potential lay-up of an electoral victory-- but no, you had to bring back the Orange Man. Whether he wins or loses, the Reagen Conservative coalition-- much like the desiccated corpse of the New Deal is dying, and if he loses, I think it's going to spark some much-needed chaos on the Right that would force them to craft a new Conservative Coalition for the 21st Century- one that without Trump would not carry nearly as much baggage, electorally.)

There is bad news for the Right though: Trump is kind of the new Hillary, which isn't the place you want to be-- a negatively polarizing candidate going up against Joe Biden is one thing. Almost getting shot is another thing. Picking J.D. Vance as your Vice-President is the pick you would make if you were convinced that Biden wasn't going to drop out and you were looking at the serious possibility of a landslide win. Except... ru-roh, Raggy: Biden did drop out and you're left with a Vice Presidential pick that doesn't look so smart now***. (Youngkin would have been such a better choice for him.) 

You cannot underestimate how this is going to play to the Normie Electorate either. I have been massively impressed with the Vice President this past month. That Lady tap-danced her way through a minefield of media coverage after the debate and didn't step on a single one. She's hit the ground running for the election campaign and- so far- hasn't committed what I would consider to be any major blunders. Plus: she seems normal. Refreshingly normal. Not crazy. Even a little bit fun.** She's closer to 50 than 80 and no one in the Normie Electorate is going to be all that enthused about another four years of Trump. (If you're not convinced that is going to be a factor- go outside, touch the grass, and feel the sunlight or raindrops on your face for a bit. Someone not old, not crazy, and who projects as normal could be the ballgame right there.)

So what now? 

I'm ignoring the polls until after the Democratic Convention-- hell, even after Labor Day would probably be better. TikTok is awash (but also fully engaged- which is a good sign for the Harris Campaign) with polls and anecdotes about volunteer sign-ups and a groundswell of support on the ground. Yard signs are noise. One golf cart rally in The Villages is nice, but we have to see what happens on Election Night. It's got to translate--you can hop on Zoom Calls until you're blue in the face, but if you don't get out and vote none of it matters. (BTW: if you, like me, find the Zoom Call thing a little weird, then don't worry-- it's not for you. It's like Republicans going to the NRA Convention or Trump yakking at a Bitcoin Conference. Little weird, but... not for you!)

I think this might be an election to shift what we perceive as the 'conventional metrics' of how we measure/predict voting patterns. There's evidence of Republican undercounting (because who wants to admit they're voting for Trump) but there's also a generational problem of cell phones versus landlines that I haven't seen good data on one way or the other. (They have to have figured that out by now, right? Surely.) There's a big case being made for a demographic shift. If 20 million Boomers have died since 2016 and this is going to be the first Presidential election where GenZ starts to vote and, more importantly, flex their political muscles, it could be very very interesting to watch. People (and pollsters who do this for a living) are awfully cynical about the youth vote- for a good reason. But if GenZ show out and do so in numbers, oh boy... it's going to be fascinating to watch.

Another fascinating point to consider: are we going to see the full extent of the networking power of Greek Life applied to politics for the first time? I know that African-American Greek Life/the Divine Nine is different from what many would consider "Greek Life" but its numbers and its networking power will be put to the test with this election and I am fascinated to see what, if any impact that it has on the final results. (I did look it up: from what I can tell Hillary wasn't in a sorority, at least not one that I can find and we all know what Skull & Bones (allegedly) did for the Bushes.)

As of this writing, we're slipping under 100 days to go until Election Day. I was resigned to another four years of Trump (part of me still is, if I'm being honest) but for the first time in a long time, I am all in on this election and can't wait to see what happens. I know it seems like every election is THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION OF OUR LIVES, but this one low-key could actually wind up being a really significant one, depending on what actually happens. 

*Yes, if the consensus today stays the same and Trump flips Virginia, Harris would have to win WI, MI, PA, NV, and AZ to win-- she'd have to run the table and that would be a tall order. The problem with that notion is that she has the potential to open up the map herself a bit. If she loses VA and PA, but picks up NC and GA and wins WI and MI then it's game over. I've seen a lot of conjecture about the potential of Florida flipping and I think that's probably more likely to go than Texas, but I also haven't seen numbers I believe there yet. I'm watching North Carolina and Georgia.

My low-key hot take here: Dems could flip MS before they flip TX. If the Harris campaign was looking for a state to make Trump spend time and money on that he probably doesn't want to spend time and money on, MS would be at the top of my list. If you can stand up a ground game down there fast enough, I think she could at minimum improve on Obama's numbers and maybe come awfully close to flipping it. But you've also got 100 days and MS might be more of a medium-to-long-term investment for Democrats than I think it is.

**I hate to wade into gendered language when it comes to talking about the amount of bullshit female politicians have to put up with in this country, but if the male politician 'you could have a beer with' tends to play well with voters, the female politicians 'you could have a glass of wine with' could also play well with voters. Yes, I get how people find her laugh to be off-putting, but to me, it feels genuine. It's got some warmth to it. There's a twinkle in her eye and whether she's just really good at this or the warmth is a genuine reflection of who she is, I don't know-- but it doesn't feel manufactured or fake, at least to me. And if I feel that way, other voters are going to feel that way too. She projects as a Mom you could have fun with, but god help your ass if you break curfew. 

***J.D. Vance might be fine. But it's clear that he was the VP pick you make if you think it's Biden and you're heading for a landslide. Do I think he'll be replaced on the ticket? Not unless things break very badly for Trump and even then, I think it's a problem, because who's going to jump on a sinking ship- and if he's replacing the VP on his ticket, then he thinks he's taking on water. The couch thing-- Google it, if you don't know what I'm talking about-- is absolutely WILD though. Cannot believe that has taken off and stuck as hard as it has.